Incidence over time
Incidence
Incidence is the number of new cases of a condition that appear in a population over a set period, such as one year.
- The recorded incidence of significant mental health problems in the UK has risen steadily since the middle of the twentieth century.
- Incidence counts new cases in a set period, so the figure moves when either the illness or the counting changes.
- A rise in recorded cases can come from a change in how cases are found and recorded.
- Three things changed together: how problems are classified, how readily professionals record them, and how willing people feel to come forward.
- The number of new cases recorded each year in the UK has climbed steadily since the middle of the twentieth century.
- Part of that climb is a change in counting, because the ICD now names more conditions and GPs ask about mood as a matter of routine.
- Part of it may be a real change, because pressures such as insecure work and exam stress can make more people unwell.
- The same rising graph fits both, so both belong in an answer about the trend.
Changing classification
ICD
The International Classification of Diseases, a manual published by the World Health Organization that lists the symptoms doctors check when they diagnose a condition such as depression or addiction.
- Mental health problems are classified using the ICD, published by the World Health Organization, and UK doctors diagnose against it.
- Mental disorders were first given their own section in the ICD in 1949, so before that there was no agreed international list to count against.
- Each new edition has recognised more separate conditions, so experiences that once had no name now fit a category and get recorded.
- Thresholds have moved as well, and ICD-10 sorted depression into mild, moderate and severe episodes.
- ICD-11, in use from 2022, dropped the old subtypes of schizophrenia such as paranoid and catatonic, and replaced them with one diagnosis rated on current symptoms.
- Categories can also be removed as attitudes change, and homosexuality was taken out of the ICD when the tenth edition was approved in 1990.
- Widening a category raises the recorded incidence on its own.
- Anxiety is named and split into separate disorders in far more detail in ICD-11 than in the manuals of the 1950s.
- Once a condition has a clear label and a stated threshold, a GP can record it, and the recorded incidence climbs.
Why recorded rates have risen
- GPs are now trained to ask about mood and anxiety in an ordinary appointment, so problems get picked up that were once missed.
- Diagnoses go onto electronic patient records and are gathered nationally, whereas mid-century figures came mainly from hospital admissions.
- NHS talking therapy services can be self-referred, so a person can enter the statistics without a crisis happening first.
- National surveys such as the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey now ask the public directly about their symptoms.
- A person can only enter the count once they have reached a service and been recorded, so the figure tracks contact with services as well as health.
- Mid-century figures rested largely on hospital admissions, so the years before electronic records are not directly comparable with today.
Changing attitudes since 1959
- The 1959 Mental Health Act replaced Victorian lunacy law, removed legal terms such as lunatic and asylum, and brought mental illness under a framework closer to that for physical illness.
- It allowed informal, voluntary admission, so a person could ask for treatment and leave again rather than being certified and detained.
- It created Mental Health Review Tribunals, giving a detained person a route to challenge that decision for the first time.
- It also started the move out of the large mental hospitals and towards care in the community.
- The 1983 Mental Health Act went further on rights, adding rules on consent to treatment and on second opinions.
- The Equality Act 2010 counts a long-term mental health condition as a disability, so discrimination at work became unlawful.
- Campaigns changed everyday language, and Time to Change, run by Mind and Rethink Mental Illness from 2007, was set up to get people talking about mental health.
- Greater openness means more people report a problem, and reporting on its own lifts the recorded incidence.
- Attitudes have changed unevenly, and surveys still find more public unease about schizophrenia than about depression or anxiety.
- Recovery is a normal outcome, and many people diagnosed with a significant mental health problem work, study and live independently.
- A change in the law and a change in public attitudes moved at different speeds, so a new Act does not by itself show what people at the time believed.
- Time to Change was a campaign about talking, so its effect shows up in how many people come forward rather than in how many become unwell.
- The older legal wording appears here only as historical language that the 1959 Act removed.
Similarities and differences over time
- Recorded rates of depression and anxiety have risen sharply across the period.
- Schizophrenia has stayed at roughly one person in a hundred over the same decades.
- Women have consistently been diagnosed with depression about twice as often as men, and that gap has held throughout.
- Men have consistently accounted for around three quarters of deaths by suicide in the UK.
- The change varies by diagnosis, because some conditions rose sharply over the period while others held steady.
Evaluating the trend in recorded cases
- Part of the rise may be real, if pressures such as insecure work, exam stress and social media make more people unwell.
- Part of it comes from better recording, through broader classification, routine questions from GPs and greater openness.
- The two cannot be pulled apart from the figures alone, because the same rising graph fits either explanation.
- The rise is best treated as a combination of real change and improved recording.
Turning this into marks
- When two reasons for the rise are asked for, make them genuinely separate rather than one reason rephrased.
- Name the specific change, such as the 1959 Mental Health Act or the move from ICD-10 to ICD-11, because a general reference to changing attitudes does not secure the knowledge mark.
- The mark most often lost is treating a rise in recorded cases as proof that more people have become unwell.
- What is incidence, and how does it differ from prevalence?
- Give two ways the classification of mental health problems has changed.
- What did the 1959 Mental Health Act change about admission to hospital?
- Give one similarity and one difference in the pattern of mental health problems over time.
- Why is a real rise in illness hard to separate from better recording?