In 2023, extreme weather conditions and a widespread outbreak of crown rust fungus severely impacted oat yields in major producing nations, including Sweden and Canada. This supply shock disrupted the global oat supply chain, leaving many processing plants operating far below capacity. At the same time, investigative reports revealed that some commercial oat milk brands had failed to disclose that they were blending lower-grade oats from non-organic sources on their packaging, leading to consumer confusion over product purity.
As a direct consequence of these supply constraints, the retail price of premium oat milk in UK supermarkets jumped by 12% in late 2023. Meanwhile, domestic almond milk producers have been capitalizing on their own marketing campaigns emphasizing low water-usage initiatives and high-quality sourcing in Mediterranean orchards. This shift is occurring alongside growing consumer awareness of the carbon footprint of dairy alternatives, leading many shoppers to re-evaluate their plant-milk choices.
Assess the likely impact of a 12% increase in the price of oat milk on the market for almond milk.
