Deficit versus surplus
Budget deficit: when government spending exceeds revenue over a period.
Budget surplus: when government revenue exceeds spending over a period.
The two positions
- A budget deficit must be financed by borrowing, which adds to the national debt.
- A budget surplus means revenue is greater than spending, so the government can repay debt or save.
- Between them lies a balanced budget, where revenue exactly equals spending.
- A deficit is expansionary and a surplus is contractionary in their effect on demand.
- A deficit injects more into the circular flow than it withdraws, while a surplus withdraws more than it injects.
Why they arise
- A deficit can arise deliberately when a government runs expansionary fiscal policy to boost demand.
- A deficit can also arise automatically in a recession, as tax revenue falls and welfare spending rises.
- A surplus is more likely in a boom, when high incomes lift tax revenue and welfare spending falls.
- A recession cuts tax revenue from £500 billion to £460 billion and raises welfare spending from £550 billion to £580 billion.
- So 460 − 580 = −120: the deficit widens to £120 billion, up from £50 billion before.
- The deficit has widened with no change in policy, because the weaker economy cut revenue and raised spending.
What follows
- Each yearly deficit is financed by borrowing that adds to the national debt.
- A run of surpluses allows a government to pay debt down over time.
- A deficit is not automatically bad: it depends on why it arises, since borrowing to fund productive investment can raise future output.
- Compute the balance as revenue − spending, then label the sign.
- A negative balance is a deficit and a positive balance is a surplus.
- Link a widening deficit either to a policy choice or to the economic cycle.
- Do not treat the deficit and the national debt as the same thing.
- The deficit is a flow added each year, while the debt is the accumulated stock.
- Define a budget deficit and a budget surplus.
- Why might a deficit widen in a recession without any policy change?
- How is a deficit financed?
- Give one reason a deficit need not be harmful.