Falling fertility rates, when combined with gains in education, can catalyze economic progress. In Bangladesh, 26% of the population is under the age of 15, down from 34% in 2010. The working-age population (15–64 years) comprises 68% of the total and is the fastest-growing demographic. Around 6% of the population is over the age of 65. The average fertility rate has declined significantly, from 6.1 births per woman in 1980 to 2.0 in 2020, and is projected to decrease to 1.7 by 2050.
In the late 20th century, primary school enrollment across the region was modest. Today, net primary enrollment in Bangladesh is nearly 97%. However, this figure masks underlying challenges, as secondary school completion is closer to 62%, leaving many young people without higher-level skills.
Why does Bangladesh's total population continue to expand even as average family sizes shrink? There are two main reasons. First, due to high birth rates in previous decades, there is a large cohort of women entering their reproductive years today (demographic momentum). Second, healthcare improvements have raised longevity; for instance, child mortality has fallen and life expectancy is expected to rise from 73 years today to 80 years by 2050.
Currently, 39% of Bangladesh's population is urbanised, with this figure projected to reach 52% by 2040. Historically, sustained economic growth is closely linked with urbanization; no nation has transitioned to high-income status while remaining predominantly rural. City environments offer two main structural advantages: they concentrate young, mobile workers which drives export-oriented manufacturing innovation, and they create density which allows for substantial economies of scale.
Consequently, Bangladesh's demographic shifts present a major opportunity. An increasingly urban and educated workforce can foster a resilient domestic market and expand the formal private sector, paving the way for sustainable economic development.
Examine two demographic factors influencing development in Bangladesh.