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Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

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Question 311

The continuous random variable WWW is used to model the endurance of a high-performance industrial drill bit, where www represents the number of thousands of cycles completed before the bit requires replacement.

The probability that a drill bit lasts for more than www thousand cycles is given by

P(W>w)=16(w+4)2,w≥0 P(W > w) = \frac{16}{(w + 4)^2}, \quad w \ge 0 P(W>w)=(w+4)216​,w≥0
a.

Show that the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of WWW is given by

F(w)={1−16(w+4)2w≥00otherwise F(w) = \begin{cases} 1 - \frac{16}{(w+4)^2} & w \ge 0 \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} F(w)={1−(w+4)216​0​w≥0otherwise​
[2]
b.

Determine the probability that a randomly selected drill bit will fail within the first 4000 cycles.

[2]
c.

Given that a drill bit has already completed 4000 cycles, find the probability that it will last for at least 8000 more cycles.

[3]
d.

Calculate the number of cycles after which only 6.25%6.25\%6.25% of these drill bits are expected to remain functional.

[3]
Markscheme

Conditional Probability Questions

  1. A Level
  2. /Maths
  3. /Conditional Probability

368 exam-style questions on Edexcel A Level Maths Conditional Probability, covering 2.1 Set Notation, 2.2 Conditional Probability, 2.3 Conditional Probabilities in Venn Diagrams, 2.4 Probability Formulae, and 2.5 Tree Diagrams. Each one has a worked solution and a mark scheme showing where the marks go.

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